EUR/USD's rebound was limited at 1.5047, below 1.5061 and weakened again. Nevertheless, with 1.4810 support intact, rise from 1.4626 is possibly still in progress even though some consolidation would be seen first. Initial bias is neutral this week. Break of 1.5061 will indicate that whole medium term rise has resumed and should target 123.6% projection of 1.2329 to 1.4719 from 1.2456 at 1.5410 next. On the downside, below 1.4810 will indicate that rise from 1.4626 has completed and will bring deeper fall to this support first.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear indication of completion of medium term rise from 1.2456 yet. Such rise could still extend further to retest 1.6039 high on breaking of 1.5061 resistance. Nevertheless, upside momentum is diminishing as seen in bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Hence, focus will remain on reversal in case of another rise and upside will likely be limited below 1.6039 high. On the downside, break of 1.4626 support will be an important signal of topping with a double top pattern (1.5061, 1.5047). In such case, deeper fall should be seen to 1.3747 support for confirmation.

In the long term picture, the lack of impulsive structure of the rise from 1.2329 argues that it's the second wave of the wide range consolidation that started from 1.6039. Another medium term decline could still be seen to 1.2329 and below but downside should be contained above 1.1639 support. The long term up trend from 0.8223 is set to resume after completing the three wave medium term consolidation from 1.6039.

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EUR/USD

EUR/USD