EUR/USD's choppy fall from 1.5047 continued last week and the brief break of 1.4807 is slightly favoring the case that it's resuming. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week as long as 1.4934 minor resistance holds and further fall could be seen to 1.4626 support next. On the upside, however, above 1.4934 will flip intraday bias back to the upside for a test on 1.5047/61 resistance zone instead.

In the bigger picture, lost of upside moment in daily MACD argues that rise from 1.2456 is possibly completing, it not topped already. Break of 1.4626 support will affirm this case by completing a double top pattern (1.5061, 1.5047). In such case, deeper fall should be seen to 1.3747 support for confirmation. On the upside, however, above 1.5061 will suggest that rise from 1.2456 is still in progress for 123.6% projection of 1.2329 to 1.4719 from 1.2456 at 1.5410.

In the long term picture, the lack of impulsive structure of the rise from 1.2329 argues that it's the second wave of the wide range consolidation that started from 1.6039. Another medium term decline could still be seen to 1.2329 and below but downside should be contained above 1.1639 support. The long term up trend from 0.8223 is set to resume after completing the three wave medium term consolidation from 1.6039.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD

EUR/USD

EUR/USD