EURUSD: Corrective Declines To Target Its LT Rising Channel

EURUSD - Having swept through key support levels at the 1.5000 level, its psycho level and the 1.4844 level, its Sept 23'09 high the past week to close lower on Friday at 1.4715, potential for further declines is now seen towards its major support coming in at the 1.4615 level where its LT rising trendlineis currently located. We expect this level to provide a strong defenceand turn off the pair back up again if tested but if that fails to materialize, price acceleration could be seen towards its Oct 02'09 low at 1.4479 with a snap below there bringing its Aug'05'09 at 1.4446 into focus. We envisage that a cap could be seen at these two levels. Its weekly RSI is bearish and trending lower suggesting further weakness. On the other hand, in order for the pair to reduce its current downside risk, it must break back above the 1.4844 level to signal a follow-through higher towards its psycho level sited at1.5000 where a break will expose its YTD high at 1.5062. This level remains the trigger for the resumption of its medium term uptrend currently on hold. On the whole, with the pair triggering corrective declines and violating its keys supports, risk is now building up towards the 1.4615 level where its LT is positioned.

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