Simple Moving Average(SMA) 50-period (red), 200-period (bold, gray)
RSI-14 with Simple Moving Average 5-period of RSI attached.
Elliott Wave Principles
Market and Price Action (patterns, candlesticks)
Intraday pivots and Intermediate-term support and resistance
Multiple Time-frame Analysis
- The EUR/USD in the 1H chart looks to be in consolidation. The RSI failing to break below 40 shows a lack of bearish momentum, but a failure to break back above 60, also shows weakness in the bulls - a setup for a possible reversal.
- In a correction with equality to the previous, the market would target 1.3330. We can see the 1.3350 to 1.3360 area to be support near the previous pivot and 61.8% retracement.
- This can be the first target for the current decline. We should look for heavier red candlesticks along side weak bullish ones to confirm the bears are taking over. The RSI should also break below 40, and if it breaks below 30, the correction is probably more significant.
- An early sign for this bearish outlook is a break and close in the 1H chart below the current support pivot at 1.3417. Then our first target is the 1.3360 level. If the market then breaks below 1.3340 with other confirmations, we are likely heading south.
- Otherwise, look for the market to consolidate sideways if the 1.3417 level holds, which means a rally to test 1.35 and 1.3530 area.
- The EUR/USD in the 4H chart ALSO look to have completed a wave 5. The RSI shows a bearish divergence. With the internals (1H chart) showing a complete terminal wave (v), we might be setting for a cyclical and correctional decline that should be significant relative to the rally from Jan 7.
- The market looks bearish, but we have to consider the possibility that this decline is correcting a strong correction rally that started Jan.7, so we have to mind the fibonacci retracement levels listed below.
- For the rest of this and next week however, we should be anticipating a bearish attempt.
Fibonacci and other Support levels:
38.2% - 1.3290
Important Pivot 1.3250.
61.8% - 1.3135
Will the EUR/USD resume uptrend after the current correction? We would love to hear what you think.
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Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist