Simple Moving Average(SMA) 50-period (red), 200-period (bold, gray)
RSI-14 with Simple Moving Average 5-period of RSI attached.
Elliott Wave Principles
Market and Price Action (patterns, candlesticks)
Intraday pivots and Intermediate-term support and resistance
Multiple Time-frame Analysis
Previous Post (1/25): EUR/USD's Double Top Confirmation
- The 1H chart shows that the market continues to be bullish despite the double top and some initial confirmation yesterday. The market however was not able to push below the then-support at the 1.3570 area.
- The market has then rallied above 1.37. You can see that despite the bearish divergence, and the RSI breaking below 40 yesterday, the bearish scenario did not open up.
- There was a break initially of a rising support, but that was immediately invalidated, and the market could not push lower than the swing that initially broke the trendline (no confirmation).
- The market reached the positive reversal target shown in the chart at 1.3720 area. There is still an extended bearish divergence.
- As always, continue to watch for a break below the rising trendline as well as the RSI sustaining a break below 40.
-The market is very choppy now for USD-crosses, but when the market breaks below the trendline, we might be in a sharp decline since all the choppiness has been building into the recent topping action.
- The daily chart shows that we did test the 1.37 pivot, and there is the 61.8% fibonacci level at 1.3745. A break above 1.3750 has 1.40 (78.6% retracement) in sight.
- The 4H chart also continues to show extended bearish divergence, but the market has not sustained a break below the rising trendline.
- Upon a break below the support, and confirming a top, our retracement targets have to be first limited to the 38.2% at 1.34, or even a bit above that near 1.3430. Below 1.34 is the 1.30-1.3250 target range.
- Until the market breaks below 1.32, we should expect another bullish attempt from either the 1.34 area or 1.3250 area.
Will the EUR/USD top off for a retracement to 1.34, 1.3250? We would love to hear from you.
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Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist