After more than a year of recession and a decline greater than forty percent in some financial indices, are we making any progress to the upside? To identify progress we first identify where we are now in the economy. Second, we address the question of whether we have reached a bottom, and which indicators we can use to gauge the economy's potential recovery. Finally, how can we measure progress in our policy efforts to address both economic and credit issues and if there are signs of progress at the regional level within the Sixth Federal Reserve District.

Our results suggest that we have made very little progress with the economy remaining in a deep recession. Alternatively, we do see progress in selected credit markets but only where the Federal Reserve appears to be directly involved. Unfortunately, the regional story remains disappointing.