Days before their divisonial round game with the Philadelphia Eagles in the 2018 NFL playoffs, the Atlanta Falcons have already made history. They are the first No.6 ever to be favored over a No.1 seed, and it’s the NFC’s top team that will be trying to pull off the upset at home.

It’s not much of a surprise that the betting odds favor the Falcons by 2.5 points in Philadelphia, per OddsShark. Atlanta didn’t have much trouble winning on the road on Wild-Card Weekend, doubling up the Los Angeles Rams 26-13.

L.A. scored more points than anyone in the regular season, and they were healthy with quarterback Jared Goff and running back Todd Gurley in the lineup. Philadelphia finished third in the league with 28.6 points per game, but they’ll be forced to rely upon Nick Foles with starting quarterback Carson Wentz done for the season.

Wentz performed so well that he ended the year as the NFL’s leader in touchdown passes, even though he missed the team’s final three games. After beating the New York Giants 34-29 in Foles’ first start, the Eagles split their last two contests, totaling just 19 points.

Foles posted a 79.5 passer rating during the season, throwing five touchdown passes and two interceptions. He completed just 56.4 percent of his throws, and he went four-of-11 in Week 17 before being pulled in a meaningless game.

Atlanta clearly has the edge at the game’s most important position. Reigning NFL MVP winner Matt Ryan was terrific with a 101.8 passer rating in the first round, despite being under constant pressure in Los Angeles. He performed like the quarterback that nearly won last year’s Super Bowl.

Ryan hasn’t been that quarterback for much of the season. That’s why the defending NFC champions just snuck into the postseason as the No.6 seed and needed the help of a tiebreaker to do so. It’s why they finished third in the NFC South and are visiting the Eagles instead of playing at home.

In seven of Atlanta’s 16 regular-season games, Ryan failed to post a passer rating of 90.0 or better. He was two interceptions away from being tied for fourth in the NFL, having thrown three picks in two separate contests. Fourteen teams scored more points than the Falcons.

If the Eagles are having trouble moving the ball Saturday night, the Falcons could find themselves in the same position. Philadelphia finished fourth in both yards and points allowed. They’ve got an underrated secondary, which helped the Eagles limit opposing quarterbacks to a 79.5 passer rating in the regular season.

Philadelphia’s defense was especially good at home, where it allowed fewer than 14 points per game. Don’t expect the Falcons’ offense, which doesn’t typically play outdoors in cold temperatures, to thrive on the road against this Eagles’ defense.

Foles won’t put up big numbers against an Atlanta defense that’s improved from last year’s Super Bowl run. Expect a low-scoring game that finishes below the over/under of 41 with the edge going to the home team.

Prediction: Philadelphia over Atlanta, 20-16