The Fall season is upon us and with it comes more uncertainty. Crude oil is approaching overbought levels and though we're not advising shorts tighten stops on longs as after a nearly $10 ascent we may see some profit taking. Traders on the sidelines look to buy that dip if it plays out. On a retracement October should find solid support between $84.50/85.50. Natural gas was virtually unchanged but we did have a 15 cent trading range so be cautious as the volatility is returning in this market. Any trade near or under $4/BTU should be bought. October targets are $4.25 followed by $4.37 and finally $4.50. A near 50% Fibonacci retracement in equities may be all we get as the last two days highs may serve as a double top...stay tuned. If we see news lows tomorrow on an ugly jobs number we would expect to see a quick %5 deprecation in the indices. We currently have NO exposure with clients. Muted trade in the metals but we stick to our guns thinking a reduction in pricing is just around the corner. Our targets in December gold are $1740, 1690 and finally 1645. As for December silver $40.00, 38.75 and potentially $37.50. We continue to like bearish exposure in the Yen but we would like to see a settlement below the 20 day MA before getting to big of a position; that level in September is 1.3005. It may make sense to have an option ratio trade on or to use options against a short in futures to take advantage of the volatility...just saying. Aggressive traders could also scale into longs in the Swissie as we are seeing a rounding bottom on the daily chart and could see a retracement after the recent pummeling the Swiss took. On its lows sugar traded to the 20 day MA; if we breach that level at 29.05 in October look for the selling to intensify. OJ is a buy and it has started to show some strength once again trading higher for the third consecutive session. Treasuries may have sucked some shorts in trading under the 20 day MA but let us be clear get short only a settlement below the 20 day MA not just a trade (10-yr notes and 30-yr bonds). Red on the screen in Ag's on good volumes with soybeans losing 1.6%, corn lower by 3.8% and wheat the biggest loser down 3.85%. Some aggressive clients are in bearish trades in corn believing an interim top is in and we get a retracement back under $7/bushel...trade accordingly. Another 1% depreciation in lean hogs and we will be ready to start gaining bullish exposure with clients...look for trade recommendations to follow.
Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.