Is it the best time to invest in gold, the hottest commodity in the world? Gold price has been moving up for the last several years and investors have been making money out of the yellow metal.
Where is gold price heading? Is gold price in a bubble that would burst soon? Will the yellow metal market collapse thanks to overheating? Will global economy recovery signals dampen the craze for gold investment? Is fear driving people to invest in gold?
Here is what a set of bullion experts have to say on where the gold price headed:
The similarities are scarily similar. Essentially, in the '30s we were in unchartered waters, and we have been in unchartered waters since 2008. - Richard Suttmeier, Valuengine.com If history were to repeat itself and stocks are in the 10th year of a 16-year secular bear mar- ket, as [Gluskin Sheff analyst David] Rosenberg believes, the Dow, which closed Friday [7/16] at 10,097.90, could fall to 5000. - USATODAy If you were putting a dime in a cookie jar, maybe stick in 20 cents, if you have the capacity to live a frugal life, do so. - David Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff The probabilities are becoming too high to use gentle wording. Though I usually confine my views to statements about probability and 'average' behavior, this becomes fruitless when every outcome associated with the data is negative, with no counterexamples. Put bluntly, I believe that the economy is again turning lower, and that there is a reasonable likelihood that the U.S. stock market will ultimately violate its march 2009 lows before the current adjustment cycle is complete. - John Hussman, Hussman Funds Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money bets against 6000 years of recorded human history. - Charles DeGaulle
[I]nvestors have piled into gold on fears that capitalism is about to crumble...[P]anicky investors and savers visualize a world that has been turned upside down by a sovereign debt crisis that breaks both the euro and flattens the once mighty dollar. As the west sinks into a quagmire of its own making, demand plummets and the world are dragged into another Great Depression. - Richard watchman, The Guardian Observer Contrast this [caution approach] with the arrogance of those who casually dismiss gold as having no role in portfolios. Perhaps they know for sure that paper currencies won't be de- based, that inflation won't be a problem in years to come or that investors will not lose confidence in governments. Or perhaps they are just in denial, blindly seeing only the sunny side of any situation (despite the global financial crisis showing how badly things can go wrong) and risking poor diversification and their clients' wealth in the process... we are far from a mania. So far gold's bull market has been very orderly, and while gold is up almost five times over a period of 10 years, this compares to the last great gold bull market of the late 60s/70s when gold rose 18 times (albeit from controlled and depressed levels). Despite being the best performing asset over the decade, the level of widespread investor interest remains subdued. - Dominic McCormick, Money Management
The historical development of the recovery in the Dow in 1930 ended with a new head and shoulder pattern. This was followed by a rapid market decline that created the first part of a long term double dip pattern. This retreat also exceeded the pattern projection targets with a fall of 28%. Fast forward to today, we're seeing the Dow is developing a new head and shoulder pattern which indicates a beginning of a bear market. The rally peaks in the Dow appear in January and may and June. The downside projection taken from the neckline of the pattern sets a target at 8,400, or a 25% decline. A very bearish analysis using the pattern of retreat behavior in 1930 suggests the Dow could retreat to around 7,500 in 2010. - Daryl Guppy, Trend Trading