The FED is no longer debating about if they're going to exit. According to the FOMC minutes, they have constructed a plan as to how they will GRADUALLY EXIT the current loose monetary policy.
The FIRST step is ceasing reinvestments in agencies and simultaneously or soon thereafter Treasury securities.
The SECOND step is to raise interest rates.
The Third step is to sell all assets.
Members said there would need to be significant change to outlook or risks before more purchases of assets were warranted, translation no QE3 for now.
Key highlights: Participants viewed the weakness in first-quarter economic growth as likely to be largely transitory, influenced by unusually severe weather, increases in energy and other commodity prices, and lower-than-expected defense spending. As a result, they saw economic growth picking up later this year. Recent increases in consumer food and energy prices, together with the small uptick in core consumer price inflation, led the staff to raise its near-term projection for consumer price inflation. However, inflation was expected to recede over the medium term, as food and energy prices were anticipated to decelerate. Nearly all participants indicated that the first step toward normalization should be ceasing to reinvest payments of principal on agency securities and, simultaneously or soon after, ceasing to reinvest principal payments on Treasury securities. A few members remained uncertain about the benefits of the asset purchase program but, with the program nearly completed, judged that making changes to the program at this time was not appropriate.
Market movements Pre/Post FOMC Minutes: Price action has moved minimally