After the biggest stock market come back since the Great Depression, one can only assume that everything in the economy is back to normal. April Fools!
Everybody plays the fool, sometime. No exception to the rule and if you bought oil on the close today you might be playing the fool. What appeared to be a great end of the quarter rally could just turn out to be fool's gold. Or maybe silver. It may be factual, it may be cruel but if you bought oil on the stock market rally you might have been fooled. Why? Well because the American Petroleum Institute reported another larger than expected crude build 3.28 million barrels. No fooling. They also reported that distillate stocks increased by 1.78 million barrels and gas inventories falling by 451,000 barrels. The overwhelming supply in crude should keep this market anchored. We need to see oil go lower to work off more supply to inspire OPEC to cut back more production. Dow Jones reported that OPEC might take action if a deteriorating economy worsens oil oversupply quoting Libya's oil head Shokri Ghanem after a string of statistics showed bleaker-than-expected forecasts. Still for now unless the Department of Energy Report changes, the outlook for the bulls in this market will be a fool's paradise if they're buying at these lofty levels. Wait for a substantial pull back!
Speaking of fools how about the King of fools Hugo Chavez talking about starting his own Petro currency? The AFP reports that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez sought Arab support Tuesday for a proposed oil-backed currency to challenge the U.S. dollar in his latest swipe at Washington's dominance in global financial affairs. It's highly unlikely Chavez will gain any serious momentum for his petro-currency proposal at a summit of South American and Arab League leaders but it represented another attempt to undercut the dollar's standing as the world's leading commercial currency.
Buy May crude at 4330 - stop 3890.
Buy May heating oil at 12000 - stop 11400.
Buy May RBOB at 12000 - stop 11700.
Buy May natural gas at 320 - stop 290.
Corn & Ethanol Report
Keep your eye on your quote screen with the April Fools Computer Virus.
The Big G-20 meets in London today amid threats from the hooligans to storm the Bank of England.
In the overnight the May Corn settled at 399 1/2 down 5 1/4 cents. The range 402 to 397 1/2 giving back some of yesterdays gains. I beleive were now going to totally going to focus on weather and planting delays.
On the Energy Front look for builds on the Crude Inventories which should put further pressure on the entire Energy Complex.