Euro: Euro surged almost 220 pips from 1.2536 lows on Friday to take resistance from the 21 Daily EMA and finally closed at 1.2653. The 4-hourly and hourly charts are indicating selling pressure in Euro while the Daily chart also is turning mid-way to indicate a downside. Resistance remains at 1.2730 (21 Daily EMA) above which is 1.2961 (55 Daily EMA). Opportunities to initiate shorts around the resistance zone could be considered. On the downside 1.25 is an important support. (Eur/Usd: 1.2663).
Pound: Cable remained volatile in the last trading session witnessing a move of almost 300 pips, touching the lows of 1.4039. All the major charts are indicating a downside for the currency except the 4-hourly stochastic which is reaching oversold. This can bring further consolidation above 1.40 levels. Initiate shorts around 1.4270 for 70-80 pips. Further shorts could be initiated around 1.4530 levels for 100-150 pips. (Gbp/Usd:1.4120)
Yen: The Usd/Jpy pair fell around 200 pips in Friday€™s session from the highs of 98.50. Currently trading around 98.20 levels, the 4-hourly charts are reaching the overbought region while the daily is also showing a correction. Immediate support is coming around 97 levels below which is 95.60 (21 Daily EMA). Sustaining above those levels (55 4-hourly EMA) can bring a rebound and take the pair to 100.50 (55 Weekly EMA). (Usd/Jpy: 98.20)
Rupee: The local unit had closed the week at 51.63/$ 0.25% stronger than its Thursday's close, marking the overall of 5.7% depreciation in the year 2009. This strength was merely because traders discounted the US unemployment data to be weaker than expected and positive local stocks. The overall bias continues to be on the downside as the offshore NDF rate quoted at 51.99/02. Thin trading can be expected ahead of the holiday mood as the Indian financial markets will be closed on Tuesday and Wednesday due to religious festivals. (USD/INR:51.68)
Swiss Franc: The Usd/Chf pair dipped 227 pips on Friday making a low of 1.484. Currently it is trading below the 200 4-hourly EMA (1.16 levels) with the daily charts giving a downside. Resistance comes in at 1.1645 (21 Daily & 4-hourly EMA) above which is 1.1711 (support turned resistance trend-line). On the downside 1.1445 (100 daily EMA) should hold. (Usd/Chf: 1.1591)
Australian Dollar: Aussie surged around 100 pips on Friday capping its gain at 0.6470 (21 daily EMA & 38.2% Retracement). The Daily & hourly charts are giving selling bias and 4-hourly chart are flat. Cluster resistance comes in at 0.6450 (100 4-hourly & 21 daily EMA) where shorts can be incorporated for intraday 80 pips. On the downside immediate support comes in 0.6250 (low on 2nd Feb. 2009) (Aud/Usd:0.6405).
Gold: Gold traded above the support zone of 21 daily EMA ($928) and gained around $15 on Friday. The daily chart indicates buying pressure although the 4-hourly & the hourly chart are giving selling bias. Cluster support comes in at $924 - $928 where gold can be bought for intraday $10 gain. (Gold: $935.00)
Dollar index: Dollar Index is consistently trading around the 88 levels with the stochastic calming down at 75.56 levels.
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.