:: Australian Dollar: After another attempt to break through the 70 cent level in Asia yesterday the Aussie dollar shrugged off more weak data in the form of March New Motor Vehicle sales to enter offshore trade around 0.7080. A weaker Greenback across the board helped the AUD/USD push above 71 cents to post an eventual high around 0.7050, this mornings opening level. With no local data scheduled for release today the local unit is likely to trade in a narrow range until offshore markets awake whilst the bigger picture seems to indicate the Aussie dollar is settling into a new range defined between 0.6950 and 0.7320 for the near term.
- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.7110 to 0.7170
:: Great Britain Pound: The markets took some confidence from the U.K Prime Ministers announcement that the government will guarantee some mortgage backed bonds, adding up to 50 billion pounds to the bailout plan taking the total package to a staggering 1.4 trillion Pounds. The immediate reaction saw the cable higher however some long term concerns abound with not only the ability to finance the package but whether it will even be enough triggering some debate in investment circles. After a torrid week trading the Pound Sterling finally found some support in overnight trade thanks to the news and a weaker Greenback, soaring from 1.4500 to open this morning at 1.4720 with the cross rate also higher at 2.0600.
- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 2.0520 to 2.0720
:: New Zealand Dollar: Following from yesterday’s late Asian jump to 0.5580 the Kiwi remained in a relatively tight trading band overnight bouncing between support at 0.5570 and resistance at 0.5620 for the majority of the session. Adding some underlying support to the NZD was worse than expected U.S Housing data and broad based selling of U.S dollars with this mornings opening exchanges near the top end of the range still above 56 cents at 0.5615. With near term topside selling expected around technical resistance at 0.5650 any further upside beyond this level will depend on movements on U.S equity markets and general risk appetite heading into the weekend.
- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.5585 to 0.5625
:: Majors: The Euro showed some tentative signs of strength in early offshore trade jumping pushing towards 1.3050 on a couple of occasion’s following a better than expected industrial orders report. Economists had forecast the value of new contracts for goods produced in the manufacturing sector, as measured by the New Industrial Orders, to decline by 2.2% in February throughout the European region however a smaller 0.6% decline gave the Euro some early support. EUR/USD eventually broke through resistance to trade higher as U.S existing Home Sales fell by a larger than expected 3% during the month of March leading to a round of selling in the Greenback against most major currencies. In declining against the majors the big dollar reached a low of 1.3160 and 97.65 in exchange with the Euro and Yen respectively U.S Durable Goods Orders data scheduled for release on Friday likely to dictate direction heading into the weekend. In other news the Canadian dollar received a huge boo st from the release of the BoC monetary policy report where a framework for possible credit and quantitative easing was outlined. USD/CAD plummeted from 1.2380 to finish on its lows of 1.2220 in relatively quick fashion.
:: Data Releases:
• AUD: No Data Expected today
• NZD: No Data Expected today
• USD: Mar Durable Goods & Mar New Home Sales
• GBP: Q1 GDP & Mar Retail Sales
• EUR: German IFO
• JPY: Feb All Industry Activity Index
• CAD: No Data Expected today