As we predicated at the beginning of the this week the US Dollar continued its bullish move reaching its highest level in more than 10 months and recorded its highest WEEKLY gain since Dec 2009. Currently almost all indicators show that the US Dollar is likely to continue with this bullish move till the end of this week (Today). We must remain vigilant and not forget the EU summit about Greece and the reports and speeches which will entail. Everyone is asking why the euro dropped yesterday when the EU summit came out with details of a plan to bail out Greece. The answer is simply the problem is not just about Greece when Portugal lost another Credit rate during this week. The Media were quick to shift their attention to Portugal right after Greece plan announcement.
EURUSD: the European currency continues with its bearish move within our expectations. Due to the Greece bail out and attention shifting to Portugal's problems the EURUSD fell to trade below 1.33 to around 1.3260. Today we are expecting a retracement to the upside with any up move most likely limited. The pair is likely to reach our final target of 1.32 which we mentioned back in mid January.
GBPUSD: Same scenario as the European currency, the pair dropped back due to better than expected US Jobless claims. Yesterday the British pound began its trading day with a bullish move due to better than expected UK retail sales which led to GBPUSD hitting its psychological resistance and dropping back towards 1.4790 closing the day around that area. Any up move is likely to be limited with the pair likely to continue its bearish move towards 1.4770 and 1.4735.
USDCHF: The pair reached expected targets yesterday of 1.0750 as the US Dollar continued its gains. With the likelihood that these US Dollar gains continue the expected targets remain at 1.0750 and 1.0800.
AUDUSD: the Australian dollar also continued to drop as Gold continued to trade below its 1100 resistance level and traded in the range of 1095 and 1085. Without any break below or above the Australian dollar continues to trade in the range of 0.9100 and 0.9060. Today the pair may find its way towards 0.9060 and 0.9000.
GOLD: As mentioned above, the gold price remains in a range trend between 1085 and 1090 and the strong resistance of 1100 remains. It's unlikely to break above that level and with a weekly close below it is a clear sign for more down moves ahead towards our expected target of 1070.
Crude Oil: Crude oil also trades in a range even after the higher inventories reported on Wednesday. It's trading between 80 and 82 USD per barrel and with the strongest resistance of 83 USD unlikely to be broken oil prices are likely to fall again towards 79 and 78 USD.