What a difference a day makes... If the performance of EURUSD is anything to go by, the swirling pessimism surrounding Greece and the integrity of the Eurozone as a whole seems to have been neutralized by France and Germany's agreement to cooperate on a bailout should that become necessary. EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Rehn went so far as describing the accord on Greece as a turning point for the euro, and policy makers from both the ECB and across the Eurobloc have applied a liberal smattering of verbal support to the plan. But does this really address the underlying structural concerns that have pushed EURUSD to near 11-month lows? We think not. According to the head of Greece's debt agency, the country still needs to raise around EUR15.5bn by the end of May - a figure almost equivalent to what they have raised in the whole of this year so far. Last week also provided a stark reminder that Eurozone problems are not exclusive to Greece alone. Portugal's downgrade by ratings agency Fitch may not have come as a massive surprise to some Euro-watchers, but the effect on market sentiment was plain for all to see. For all the relief that the recent EU accord does afford, it certainly does not come close to addressing the deep-seated structural problems still dogging the Eurozone, and therefore the risks in our view remain firmly skewed to the downside. The major data events due this week are likely to centre on Wednesday's Eurozone CPI and Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls. After strong German CPI readings today, the Eurozone CPI figure for March will be released on Wednesday and is expected to tick up to 1.1% YoY from last month's subdued 0.9%. We do feel however that it is exceedingly unlikely that the data will provide the kind of positive surprise that will overshadow lingering Eurozone concerns. Friday's Non Farm Payrolls may also find that its impact is distorted by the lower liquidity on Good Friday; however markets are looking for a positive 15k change this month, and for the unemployment rate to remain stable at 9.7%.

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