FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The GBP/USD's rejection at intra-day high at 1.6038 in the European morning has continued throughout the session to fall 70 pips and test the MA55 periods in the hourly chart at 1.5970. Currently the pair is trading around 1.5970/80, 0.40% above today's opening price action at 1.5930.
Nonfarm payrolls are expected to decline 2k in December related to the level in November, it could be the lowest level since January 2008. Expectations could be beat as informs as ADP job report has posted the small decline since March 2008, 4-week initial claims average has continued falling this week and the manufacturing ISM employment component has risen to 52.00. Unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 10.0% during December.
Valeria Bednarik, FXstreet.com collaborator, comments about today's US unemployment report: NFP are expected around -3K from -11K in November, yet there is lots of speculation of a positive reading for the first time since 2007. Meaning market has too high expectations: a bad reading could tear apart dollar. An important thing to consider is the unemployment rate: is expected around 10.1% from 10.0% in November and 10.2% past October. Pay attention to any number above 10.3% or under 9.9% as if unemployment rate changes that much could lead the way; past month revisions could also me meaningful.
The Kshitij Consultancy Service Team comments: The Cable has risen during the day and recorded a high of 1.6036. Further upside is likely to be contained near the Max High for the day which is at 1.6082. A rise therafter, though not likely, may meet the channel Resistance on the daily candles near 1.6180. The pair has been oscillating in a bear channel over the last several days; the bounds for which are 1.6180 and 1.5714 today. Overall the Cable is bearish and we expect a test of 55-week MA (1.5658) eventually over the course of next few weeks.
Finally, according to TJ Marta, chief analyst at Marta on the Markets, GBP/USD is holding at 1.60: Cable (1.6016) is up overnight, and appears to be holding near the bottom of the 1.60-1.68 range that has held for most of the time since June. Technical support lies at 1.5833 (Dec30 low) and then 1.5708 (Oct low). Resistance lies at 1.6411 (Dec 16 high), 1.6878 (Nov16 high) and 1.7043 (Aug high). The strongest correlates over the past two months for GBP/USD have been the DXY (negative), EUR/USD (positive), the S&P (positive) and crude oil (positive).