Forex Ichimoku Report July 28th

EURUSD – Looking Like it Wants toSince breaking the daily kumo for the first time in the last 8 mos and the entire year of 2010, the EURUSD has performed notably consistent with a kumo break play as it has pulled back to the flat top and since bounced from there.

It has however stalled around the 1.3000 barrier and after two major rejections off there with one of them sending the pair back to the flat top, the pair has been attacking it for a few days now without any major dips.  In essence, its behaving like a pair that wants to break 1.3000 and has yet to show any signs of it not having the gusto to do so.  Now would not be the time to add longs so you can either wait till a mild pullback to the kumo flat top or a weekly close above 1.3050.

USDJPY – Rejected AgainAfter making its most legitimate attack on the 20ema, the USDJPY has been rejected off the daily 20ema for a 6th time now.  The pair has sold off but albeit mildly and considering how the price action looks to form a base around 86 yen, look for the pair to produce a higher low and strike back at the 20ema.  A close above it will likely gun for the falling Kijun trend line but if that should be broken, then it seems like an attack on the kumo might be inline before the bulls mettle will be really challenged.

GBPUSD – OutperformingGoing further than most expectations off the 1.4300 lows, the pair has cruised at a saunterly pace past 1.5350 and 1.5500 which were major fib / resistance levels.  The pair is eating its way past 1.5600 but has yet to have an aggressive attack on the upside suggesting liquidity is low at the moment.

With that being said, a dip back to the 20ema would be a solid play for another long as the tenkan’s momentum is strong and the kijuns path is climbing suggesting this pair will continue to walk up the slope for more ground.  A little caution is noted though since the pair has climbed for 4 straight days and looks set for a 5th so perhaps waiting for a pullback day (albeit a mild one) would be more prudent.

USDCHF – Hemmed InAfter forming the first pieces of a bottom at 1.0400, the pair has made its 1st touch upon the 20ema but has rejected a little bit on its 1st touch since early June and 1100pips ago.  This is not surprising but should the defenses and base at 1.0400 hold, we expect another attack and possible break in this week or next of the 20ema.

After that, the pair has one decent resistance just sub 1.0700 but after that, the Kijun does not come in till about 1.0800 so some decent upside treks available for the bulls.  Selling at the 20ema is really the only option for now with the Kijun being next in line.  It is currently flat suggesting no trend and the Kumo is imposing so a real reversal and move back to 1.1000 will take a lot of effort.

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