Forex Market Update

The publication of banks stress tests in Europe may help bring to end broadbased suspicions between banks. Although transparency is good for overall long term health for the market, it seems unlikely that all banks will be given a clean bill of health which will test investor's resolve in helping in the provision of fresh capital. At the very least this could increase market volatility through the summer months, though risk aversion could be given a fresh boost if negative surprises are greater than feared. The EUR is not yet out of woods.

Better than expected UK public sector borrowing data provided an interesting read this morning ahead of the June 22 emergency budget. The May borrowing requirement came to GBP 16 bln compared with a median expectation of GBP 18 bln. Encouraging news within this data is the GBP 6.1 bln pick-up in tax receipts in the first 2 mths of the fiscal year. Although this has been almost entirely offset by the GBP 5.7 bln increase in expenditure, the figure nevertheless hints that upward trend in the borrowing requirement has been levelling off.

This may mean that the axe to public spending could fall a little less heavily than feared going forward. Sterling benefitted on the data release but has been unable to hold these gains. EUR/GBP ran into solid support above the 0.8325 and is holding little changed from last night's close. Cable has given up its earlier gains, trading largely in tune with EUR/USD and currently holding just above the USD1.4815 technical support.

EUR/CHF has continued to probe the downside this morning. The recent improvement in Swiss economic data and admission by the SNB yesterday that deflationary risks have all but disappeared suggest that any further intervention by the SNB will be aimed at limiting rather than reversing the move. This suggests there may be further room yet in the EUR/CHF downtrend.

The AUD and the CAD have both traded in a choppy fashion in Europe suggesting uncertainty about the direction of risk. Oil is softer this morning, also hinting that the market may be reluctant to extend risky position ahead of the weekend.

There is no US data this afternoon, Canadian leading indicators are due.

Jane Foley

Research Director FOREX.com jfoley@forex.com +44 207 398 5024   FOREX and other leveraged products involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. FOREX.com is a trading name of GAIN Capital - FOREX.com UK Limited and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (FSA FRN 190864)

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