- The USD/JPY surged about 300 pips after the Ministry of Finance intervened in the forex market to fend off the strength of the Japanese Yen.
- 80.00 is an important level, which the pair broke. However, it was not able to sustain the break, and a sharp rejection ensued.
- The USD/JPY is becoming very volatile so it may be prudent for traders to wait for clues from further reaction.
- If the market can stay above 77.82, we would be able to establish further bullish intent in the short-term.
- If the RSI remains above 40 after the current bearish attempt, we can also be bullish.
- The bullish outlook is limited however to 80.70 in the short term and remains susceptible to being faded up to 82.25, a break above which we can establish medium-term bullish outlook.
- Trichet definitely sent the Euro lower today across the board with language suggesting stimulus, which could mean basically a higher money supply, which leads to a depreciation of the currency.
- After the intervention pop, the EUR/JPY is contained below 114.00, near a cluster of resistance levels along with the 200SMA.
- The RSI kissed 70, but it is not a very impressive bullish break. It looks like the market is ranging.
- If the market breaks below 111.00 however, we might be heading back towards the 109.00 low.
- Otherwise, if the RSI remains above 40, and market remains above 111.00, we have a bullish stance. Then if we break back above 114.00, and in a subsequent throwback stay above 113.50, we are likely in a bullish continuation with 117.80 in sight.
- The GBP/JPY has been stalked to be in the 5 wave of a corrective pattern. You can see the double zig zag count in the latest update with the GBP/JPY daily chart.
- There was no need to reach the 122.15 low. Instead the market stayed above 124, and now if it stays above 127.00 in the current decline, we are building strength. There is also a support area near 128.50, which was resistance in July's ranging action, which appears to be holding now. This is also near the 200SMA, which makes it an area of support cluster between 128.00-128.50.
- A bullish continuation should reach 130.85 in the very short-term.
- Above this pivot, the 135.00 level is the next resistance pivot.
- A fall back below 127.00 however opens up the 124.00 area again, and even the 122.15.
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Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist