FXstreet.com (London) - Dollar drew small gains from an empty market place today, as the few market players left behind took positively to the latest piece of macro data to come out of the states. The Chicago PMI, widely viewed as a precursory indicator to more telling ISM figures, broached 'expansionary territory' according to DowJones newswire.
The purchasing managers index, a broad measure of business sentiment, serves as a early indication to the likely feel of ISM data. These figures, the Institute of Supply Management data, serve as telling figures for industrial growth.
The central bank of America has highlighted several key elements to its recovery, but one of the markets key focuses has been the labour market. In recent weeks we have seen some of the most volatile swings come from Non-farm payrolls, unemployment levels and other labour related data.
Indeed it was the labour subcomponent of the PMI today which drew attention form brokers and commentators, who took expanding labour bullishly, only serving to add fuel to the fire that the FED will move to hike interest rates earlier than expected.
FED have however expressed, and reiterated the need for caution, for gradual removal of stimuli from the market. In the face of several previous positive macro figures, the FED have each time been sure to reassert that rates would be held at near to zero for the near future.
This will be a key issue around global market across many asset classes next year, and trade will likely be dominated by position taking and speculation over rates, and the 'will they' or 'wont they' question. Indeed if they will, when will they.