As always I recommend everyone use stop-losses  and be smart about the trades they enter - don't enter a trade just to be in the market or for fear of missing out. Patience pays.

Daily Outlook: A few big news items to watch out for today: the Euro's Manufacturing PMI at 9:00 GMT and especially the US Initial Jobless Claims and ISM reports at 13:30 GMT. I will also keep an eye on the German retail sales at 7:00 GMT as I think this will have a higher impact than usual if the number is significantly different from analyst's expectations. Read the full news calendar here.

Technically the pair is approaching strong daily trend resistance (blue line on my chart below) that connects the Dec 3, 2010 high (on a side note that shooting star would have provided you about 2000 pips by now - not bad) with the March 17, 2010 high. Also in that area giving us a confluence of resistance is the 61.8% retracement of the March 17-March 25 drop.

Trading Idea: Put these items together, and if the news gives us its blessing, and I will look to short near the falling trend resistance and the 61.8% fib level (currently above 1.3605), with short targets preferred at 1.3575, 1.3545 and 1.3515. A much more aggressive trade (if the market sets it up correctly, bears lose power, etc. - this is a more advanced trade and I only recommend you consider it if you know what you are doing) would be a long at the 1.3390 support on a failed break through. Be careful here though, as a break below that support is a bearish sign.

(click to enlarge)

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Source: Forex Signals - EUR/USD Approaching Strong Daily Resistance
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