Recap: Tuesday’s short was triggered at 1.2770 on the 7:27 support break, but was closed at 1.2783 for a 13 pip loss as a false break. No trades taken yesterday due to the volatility of the US elections – congrats to the President Obama – as we mentioned in yesterday’s comments. Whether the election has negative or positive effect on the pair doesn’t matter to us as we will continue with swing trading as normal.

It’s a been a frustrating start to the month with price being choppy, kicking out false breaks left and right. We’ve kept our losses very small (5-10 pips on average) due to our false break alert systems. Check out our performance on the right hand column to see our results so far and over the past 6 months.

The 4h charts are certainly bearish at this point with a drop of over 400 pips since mid-October when the pair stalled under 1.3150. We expect this drop to continue with a short-term rising support forming under current price action.

Today’s Important News Events:

DateTime (UTC)EventForecastPrevious
Nov 8
00:30AUD Employment Change (OCT)0.5K15.5K
 00:30AUD Unemployment Rate (OCT)5.5%5.4%
 12:00GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (NOV)375B375B
 12:00GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (NOV 8)0.50%0.50%
 12:45EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (NOV 8)0.75%0.75%
 13:30EUR ECB’s Draghi Holds Press Conference After Rate Decision  
 *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar.

Trading Idea: We will look to get short on a support break with targets of 80 pips and SL of 50 pips.

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