Daily Outlook: Since then the pair has retraced somewhat to 1.3330 from its low at 1.3266. Reportedly the main bearish driver on the day was, you guessed it, more news about Greece. The short story is that there is a bailout plan being developed (though nobody is calling it a bailout) that involves some money coming from EU and some coming from the IMF. At this stage it is less about the money and more about getting Greece a more favorable borrowing rate to finance its debt. The markets generally view the EU turning to the IMF as a bearish for the Euro because they can't handle the matter internally. In the medium-term though this could spark a mild correction in the Euro.
Technically we are bearish still. Another day of lower lows and lower highs (and a new 10-month low) indicates bears still have the power. All and all it is Friday and it has been a great week of trading so I will remain on the sidelines for the day, but I still wanted to pass on my analysis and trading idea. If I was looking to enter today it would be in the bearish direction with the continued strategy of selling dips and bearish candlesticks (make sure to monitor the candlestick alerts here).
Also be aware of the US GDP news release at 13:30 GMT. It can markets volatile and kick out stops, especially on a Friday. Check out the full forex calendar here.
Trading Idea: Primary trade would be to fade rallies on candlestick confirmation tot he 1.3370-1.3395 resistance zone. Short targets from 1.3395 are 1.3370, 1.3340 and 1.3305. A sustained break above 1.3370 could open up a re-challenge of 1.3330 and 1.3365 (correction: 1.3430 and 1.3465). A secondary trade would be to sell a break of 1.3260 with targets at 1.3235 and 1.3205.
Also for shorter timeframe traders make sure to watch the 1.3350 resistance area (and right below it) as a failure could open up a re-challenge of 1.3300 and 1.3265 while a break above opens up 1.3370 and 1.3395.