4:17a GMT - Euro bulls were able to extend the rally past 1.3700 resistance yesterday. I had a small position much lower down on a bearish doji that was stopped on a very tight stop and did not enter at 1.3700 as their was no candlestick signal to confirm the trade. The Greek worries were set aside for a bit yesterday as risk sentiment improved and the US dollar sank accordingly. Greece is just the tip of the iceberg however, with problems in Portugal, Italy and Spain (PIGS for short) on the horizon. EU is in a bind because aiding Greece is in their best interests in the short-term but long-term how will they respond if one of the other PIGS countries needs help?
Daily Outlook: I've posted a possible weekly scenario below for everyone to look at, and circled the double dojis that give me pause and make me concerned this bullish sentiment could continue for a few more days. The pair is still capped by a falling trend resistance on the daily chart however.
Trading Idea: I will play it cautious today as the short-term trend exposes itself. No need to risk my capital on a 50/50 toss. The primary trade I will look for is a short near falling trend resistance (falling blue line below on 1h chart) which is around 1.3800. 1.3800 is also resistance from mid-February. From 1.3800 at 1.3765, 1.3730 and 1.3700. If you are feeling aggressive a long in the 1.3600 area offers a good shot at jumping back up, but I will not be taking that trade.