Daily Outlook: The pair is hovering just below 1.2300 right now (our primary trade from yesterday that was never triggered) but the pair has broken to the upside of its falling trend resistance line on the 4h and daily charts. Surprisingly the 1h chart (shown below) still shows the pair hovering below the resistance when you connect the relevant close bars. I say surprisingly because usually the 60m chart is the first to show a sustained break with the higher timeframe charts lagging behind.
This leaves our very short term picture looking bullish and this would be confirmed with a close above 1.2300 on the 1h charts.
Trading Idea: My primary trade idea will, of course, be a short on a bearish candle at 1.2300. A wick piercing this level is OK but it must close below. Short targets from 1.2300 are 1.2275, 1.2250, 1.2225 and 1.2200 for 100 pips profit. If we see a sustained break above 1.2300 I will look for a long on a pullback to the former falling trend resistance at 1.2300 with targets up to 1.2345 and 1.2395 for 95 pips profit.
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