The second is bad risk/reward ratios and stops so tight that even if your analysis is correct you are not giving the trade proper room to develop. Here is one thing I can promise you: trying to predict exactly where the market will turn with 10-20 pips (several times a day!) is not a winning strategy that I have EVER seen. There are so many moving parts to currency exchange - noise traders, hedge funds, mutual funds, banks, governments, corporations - and all of them are buying and selling for different reasons. And I promise you that 99% of that money is not looking at the charts you are looking at. On the EUR/USD I recommend a MINIMUM of 35-50 pip stop-losses for a proper analysis setup, meaning the TP is at least 70-100 pips (or more) for good risk/reward.
I'll write more on this later but just some thoughts that have been bouncing around my head for awhile.
FYI I took a short at the 16:00 doji for 90 pips.
Daily Outlook: It has been bears and more bears all this week and I've been selling every day on the way down. While both the technical and fundamental picture remain bearish and I would prefer looking for shorts we are entering the territory where a retracement is becoming more likely.
I see the key support zone as 1.2800-1.2785 and the key resistance zone as 1.2850.
Trading Idea: Primary trade is conservative as usual - short from 1.2900 with targets at 1.2870, 1.2840 and 1.2810 for 90 pips. A more aggressive wrapper trade will look to short on a sustained break of 1.2790 and long on a sustained break of 1.2850.
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