But I am glad I got out in time too! Shortly after that trade there was a 240 pip rise in under 5 hours. Rumors from smart money are that this was central bake intervention - whether it was from the Fed or across the pond is anyone's guess. The Fed makes the most sense as they have a vested interested in a weak dollar but who knows? It might just be regular volatility.
Daily Outlook: Intervention aside I'm bearish. Even with the 240 pip jump the pair quickly fell back down 130 pips shortly thereafter. A new low was made yesterday at 1.2110 and the long- and medium-term technical outlook is still bearish, bearish and bearish. In short, I'm still looking for selling opportunities. My major concern is really the imperfect doji that is on the daily charts right now which could indicate a bullish retracement. I don't put as much weight in that though if yesterday's rally was indeed caused by central bank intervention.
Some US housing news and Europe inflation data but nothing I expect to be market-shattering. Check out the forex calendar here. Also the 1h and 30m candlesticks have been profitable of late (in addition to 4h GMT). Check out the candlestick alerts here.
Trading Idea: Primary trade will be for a short in the neighborhood of 1.2300 with short targets down to 1.2270, 1.2245, 1.2215 and 1.2175 for 125 pips profit. A sustained break below 1.2200 (1h) could also open up a challenge of 1.2175, 1.2150 and 1.2125. If we see a sustained break above 1.2340 then a re-challenge of 1.2440 is probably in the cards but I will not be looking for longs tomorrow.
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