Quick note: Sorry if I haven't gotten back to some of your emails yet. I'm still playing catch-up from the holidays and it might be a little bit before I can get to them all.

4:44a GMT - After a rapid rise yesterday from below 1.4300 to 1.4450 the pair has settled into a consolidation range between 1.4450-1.4400. I took a short at 1.4430 after the 14:00 bearish shooting star on the chart right under 1.4450 resistance which I closed a few hours ago for a small profit after 4 attempts to to break support have failed. With positive US news we walk a fine line as both bulls and bears find evidence for their posititions. USD bulls see positive news as evidence that the Fed will raise rates earlier than expected, while USD bears see positive news as evidence to support their rush back into risk, which means betting on the higher-yielding Euro.

Daily Outlook: I am still short-term bearish on the pair with 1.4500 needing to be broken before to open up further upside action. On the day I will continue the strategy from yesterday of looking to sell on rallies, this time near resistance at 1.4450 with confirmation.

Trading Idea: Shorts preferred around 1.4450 resistance (with candlestick confirmation) with targets at 1.4415, 1.4380, 1.4350 and 1.4320. A sustained break under 1.4400 would also activate a short trade for me.

5:00a GMT Update: Didn't take long for that resistance to break did it? If this is a false breakout I'll be going short, otherwise next resistance is strong daily resistance at 1.4500 and I'll be looking to short around there.

(click to enlarge)

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