I would say 70-80% of trading is knowing when NOT to trade, knowing when a particular setup is high-probability or low-probability.
Today we have plenty of news on the forex calendar to keep us busy, and headlining that is the FOMC rate decision. They are expected to keep rates at historic low levels but the market will be watching carefully to see if there is any word on further risks about deflation/inflation. My hunch is their statement will be as stale as always (no changes) and that the market will rally on it. Big players seem to have completely swept away their fears about Eurozone instability as risk-appetite is back in a big way. And let us not forget that the US government has a vested interest in a weak dollar: it will cause exports to rise and also reduce their debts. They just want it to weaken in a controlled fashion via time interest rate changes. So my strategy will continue to be buying on dips, and looking for candlesticks to confirm those trades.
Trading Idea: Primary trade is a long between 1.3050-1.3100 with candlestick confirmation. Long targets (from 1.3075) at 1.3100, 1.3130, 1.3160 and 1.3190 for 115 pips profit.
Momentum has been slipping a bit as usual so I'm going to list an aggressive trade as a short on another failure at 1.3250 - this would complete a compelling 4h/daily head and shoulders as well. Targets at 1.3225, 1.3195, 1.3165 and 1.3135 for 90 pips profit.