Recap: Morning and welcome to another week of forex analysis and signals PipHutters! The question on everyone's minds this weekend is obvious: when is FIFA going to get instant replay?? Honestly, the referees already have mics and headphones - how hard would it be to have someone quickly send down the correct call? It seems like every game I've watched recently there has been a horrible call that either gave or took away a hard-earned goal. But I digress...
The question that was on the minds of currency traders was, of course, the G20 summit and how that income could effect the markets. So far, it hasn't. Word is that austerity measures, or debt reduction, is the theme and Keynesian money-printing (what Obama wanted) is out. Specifically countries are agreeing to halve deficits by 2013 and reduce debt-to-GDP ratios by 2016.
So what does that mean for us? Well long term it is good. I've long been a personal fan of savings and not living beyond your means and it is about time our governments started doing the same thing. In the short-term however it does increase the odds of a double-dip recession as a lot of that spending was keeping economies afloat. The one saving grace however, is that spending is so inflated right now halving it should not be that hard. The US for instance would just need to pull out of a war or two and quit throwing money at bankers and we'd be set.
Daily Outlook: Nothing has changed in the technical outlook since last weeks posts so I'll give you the very brief recap: Long-term = very bearish. Short-term = bullish but losing steam.
Important to note though is that the rising trend support that started in early June (bottom blue line on my chart) has held this past week which gives the short-term its bullish tint, despite the hard bounce the pair took off the 1.2467 resistance.
Going with the long-term trend I will continue to look for selling opportunities personally as I believe bull rallies will continue to find sellers to slow the pair, thus making the short sell a less risky position.
Trading Idea: My primary trade is a short in the area of 1.2450 with short targets at 1.2415, 1.2385, 1.2355 and 1.2325 for 125 pips profit. A more aggressive trade would be a long from the rising trend support (bottom blue line) currently around 1.2300. A long from this area should target 1.2400 for 100 pips.
I will also consider a short on a sustained break of 1.2280 targeting 1.2190.