For those of you who are new to trading or just want better background information, the problem here is that since the Eurozone has a single currency - the Euro - and monetary policy (under the ECB) countries that are struggling like Greece are unable to lower their interest rate. Normally when a country needs to spur growth and lending they lower their interest rate (for example what the US has done). In the Eurozone there is a discrepancy between countries like Germany, who have a healthy trade balance and are highly productive, and countries like Greece that are struggling. If the situation got dire enough some predict Greece could leave the EU, thus dealing a major blow to the Euro. Other countries in the EU, namely Portugal, Spain and Ireland, are a few steps away from being in Greece's position.
Daily Outlook: Mix all that together and the fundamental picture is bearish for the Euro. Technically the picture is bearish as well. On Friday the pair broke out of its bullish correction channel (that it had been in since mid-February) to the downside. The past three days have seen a drop of over 300 pips. Ultimately I believe we will see another challenge of 1.3435 in this week and I will look to sell on rallies.
Trading Idea: Primary trade is to look to sell on a retracement. Nearest is 23.6% retracement at 1.3580, near resistance at 1.3590. As such I will look to sell with signal in the 1.3580-1.3600 resistance zone. Targets from 1.3585 are 1.3555, 1.3530 and 1.3500. If 1.3600 is broken to the upside the next retracement/resistance levels are 1.3620 and 1.3660.
Secondary trade is to sell a sustained break of 1.3500 with targets at 1.3475, 1.3450 , 1.3420 and 1.3385.