3:45a GMT - The pair searched for its identity yesterday as it slowly inched up into our resistance zone of 1.4400-1.4435 but has lost steam since. For the past 12 or so hours it has bounced around in that zone, knocking out my short from yesterday for a very small loss.
Both news events yesterday were also fairly anti-climactic with jobs coming in just slightly worse than anticipated - not enough to move the markets one way or another. The FOMC minute were a bit more lively but ultimately it looks like nothing has changed - they are willing to raise the interest rate when needed but everyone agrees the economy is not strong enough to begin raising now. In fact, several members are still arguing for more money-printing to prop up the fragile US economy. From a fundamental standpoint I have to say this makes me long term bearish on the USD as it appears inflation is still towards the back of everyone's priority lists, meaning interest rates will not be raised soon. On top of that it appears the Fed is willing to prop up the US economy as long as needed, an attitude which will should drive risk and ultimately money into the higher-yielding Euro.
Daily Outlook: But I still have to trade everyday in the short-term! And that short-term trend is down as long as 1.4500 holds. I am moving my resistance zone up a little bit as we might see an extinction burst out of the pair before things go back down south, but we have resistance at 1.4450, 1.4480 and 1.4500. I will be looking for short signals in the vicinity of 1.4450-1.4480.
Trading Idea: Looking for shorts in the 1.4450-1.4480 resistance zone with targets (from 1.4480) at 1.4450, 1.4415, 1.4380 and 1.4350.