If you've been out for the past couple of weeks you did not miss much - price has been consolidating in the 1.4450-1.4200 range since 12/17/09. Interesting fundamental event did occur yesterday when Bernanke again warned US Congress that the interest rate may have to be used as a bubble-burster to burst bubbles in US stocks, equities, housing etc. before they threaten the stability of the US economy. This idea is nothing new as Bernanke has said similiar words in months past, but on top of the better than expected jobs and other US economic fundamentals it adds weight to the US dollar bulls argument. Basically if Bernanke raises interest rates sooner than traders expect it is bearish for the EURUSD and bullish for the US dollar.
Daily Outlook: Technically speaking we are in the middle of a strong short-term downtrend since early December caused by good US jobs data. The longer-term technical outlook is bullish (long-term uptrend since early 2009). However, for our day trading purposes I am looking to go with the shorter-term trend and continue to sell on rallies.
Trading Idea: I am looking first to sell rallies below the 1.4370 resistance area. Short targets from 1.4370 are 1.4340. 1.4305 and 1.4275. Alternatives: if 1.4370 is broken to the upside that opens up a challenge of 1.4450 and a break of 1.4200 to the downside opens up a challenge of 1.4050 (August 7 2009 lows).
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