3:20a GMT - Watching the forex markets yesterday was about as exciting as watching paint dry. I had three open trades ( none on the EUR/USD signal) all day that hardly moved. Apparently market participants thought the pair had achieved a fair value for the time being and we had equal amounts buying/selling to keep the pair in the tight 1.3650-1.3580 range.
Daily Outlook: Given that nothing has actually changed since yesterday, and 1.3650 held for the second time in 2 weeks I am still looking to sell with the trend as my primary trade. 1.3650 will provide my first resistance level and the falling trend line as my second. We do have the German confidence sentiment being released around 09:00 gmt, so be weary of that (higher than estimated confidence is generally taken as Euro positive - more on that at the forex calendar).
Trading Idea: Primary trade is a short from 1.3650 (with candlestick confirmation) with targets at 1.3620, 1.3585 and 1.3555. The falling trend resistance will provide a nice place to hide my stop-loss. Secondary trade is to look for a false breakout above 1.3650 to be capped by the falling trend resistance (currently at1.3680). Finally a break above 1.3700 should produce a challenge of 1.3790 and a break below 1.3580 should open up 1.3545 and 1.3450.