6:14a GMT - Happy March PipHutters! Time really does seem to fly these days. I was trying not to enter the markets last Friday - end of week, end of month, Greek crisis all added up to more risk than I generally tolerate. So I listed my (preferred) conservative trade as being in the 1.3650-1.3700 resistance zone WITH candlestick confirmation on top of it. I didn't expect either condition to be hit but with 5 hours left to go in Friday trading we saw a 100 pip bullish move into the conservative territory, capped by a bearish shooting star at 16:30 that popped up on the candlestick alerts (30m). Long story short I took the short position knowing my losses would be limited with 1.3700 capping potential gains and gained a quick 50 pips on the signal going into the weekend.
Daily Outlook: Double-doji on the weekly chart is enough to give me pause. A break above 1.3700 would be a bullish sign for further correction up to 1.3850 and higher (1.42 territory). Fundamentally traders are weighing the bad news in Europe (the Greek problem - and Portugal, Spain and Italy looming) against bad news in the US (soft housing data, unemployment, etc) and trying to figure out how much risk they are willing to tolerate. In the short-term the Greek fallout has really shaken traders and I think that will trump US concerns (meaning USD strength). Technically I will remain bearish under 1.3700 and will look to take another short in that vicinity.
Trading Idea: Looking for short with candlestick confirmation in the 1.3700 vicinity. Short targets at 1.3675, 1.3650, 1.3615 and 1.3585. A sustain break above 1.3700 immediately puts 1.3750 and 1.3790 in my sights.