4:16a GMT - The triangle consolidation pattern we were watching yesterday held on the day, only briefly being challenged with a false-breakout to the downside. If you sold when it last touched the falling resistance you were rewarded with a 140 pip drop (our bias is to the downside). We are running out of room for the pair to work with in the triangle however, and we were definitely see a breakout in one direction or the other.
Daily Outlook: Though it doesn't have a formal spot on the calendar like other event risks this rumored bailout of Greece is looming over traders as a potential event risk that could occur at any time. A very loose bailout will most likely be seen as risk-positive and send the EUR/USD soaring, while on the opposite end of the spectrum a complete breakdown of talks would send risk and the EURUSD plummeting. That being said though, the primary trade idea from yesterday holds of waiting to sell on rallies, particularly around the 1.3850 (former resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement).
Trading Idea: Shorts preferred with targets (from 1.3850) at 1.3810, 1.3780 and 1.3740.