i have never heard you write about a trade where you have lost.....It would be hard to believe that you are winning on every trade...
My first thought was Steve must be new to PipHut because of course I lose trades but here is my actual and much more constructive response to Steve was this:
Hi Steve, I have been on a good EUR/USD streak recently but of course I still lose trades! You can view past signals on my website and it should not be hard to find a losing one. I only make maybe 2-4 trades per week, max, based off my signals. I would much prefer not to take any trade than to take a trade that is so-so. Recently the trend has been very strong though, which makes trading very easy. I’ve been selling basically since December – again look at the past signals - and the pair has dropped almost 3000 pips since then.
The key are those last few sentences: the pair has dropped almost 3000 pips [from late December]. If you are trading with the trend it is so much easier to make money in this kind of strong downtrend if you are patient and smart about it! If you go through my past signals I have been basically selling or staying out that whole way down. The places where I have lost money have generally been the consolidation and retracement periods where I keep trying to sell.
If you are a new trader or looking to refine your strategy I would think about how trading with the LONG term trend and trading LESS could improve your results.
Daily Outlook: What a week! The pair has dropped over 800 pips and I've recommended a sell every day of the week. Greece worries continue to drive up the dollar vs. the Euro as the market looks to re-value the currencies at a level that seems more appropriate given the risky nature of the Eurozone right now. Technically it is very, very bearish, but a risk of a bounce increased a bit today as the drop seemed to continue without any correction whatsoever. I wouldn't bet on that bounce, however, because as Keynes once said:
The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. - John Keynes
Stock markets around the world fell yesterday, starting with Dow which at one point was down over 10% before recovering. The initial reaction was that this was a response to the Greek crisis but news later began trickling out that this was actually an automated sell-off triggered by a trader's error in selling some Proctor and Gamble stock.
Trading Idea: It's Friday. It's been a great week and today was capped off with some strong volatility. I'll keep my profits and sit out this Friday. If I was looking at the markets I would be looking for shorts on rallies 1.2800 and 1.2875.
Also for those of you who trade US stocks like I do one thing this 900 point drop today should tell you is this: the fear is still there. Stops are tight and the markets are very, very fragile. Greeks are rioting against the bailout austerity measures and this makes investors even more trigger-happy. I think US stocks are going down.
See you next week and Aloha!
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