Daily Outlook: I hope as many of you as possible got in on the ultra-aggressive long mentioned yesterday (long near 1.3080) - I know many of you did from your emails and comments so good for you. The pair climbed 300 pips (!) yesterday and capturing even a percent of that is enough to make your day/week depending on your money management system.
Pretty exciting week in general as the pair rose almost 500 pips from start to now, basically on the news that the European bond sales went better than expected in large part due to the Chinese now buying European debt as well (The People's Republic of China is the largest holder of US debt at over $2 trillion). On a side note you have to wonder how China owning the debt of all the nations around the world will influence politics and conflicts for years and decades to come.
Technically the pair is overbought on the hourlies and, as you can see from the 4h chart above, is currently threatening the daily falling trend resistance around 1.3380. While there is enough reason to believe a downside short would work here with the overbought charts and strong resistance it is a Friday (we rarely trade on Fridays due to volatility) and the bulls have shown a tremendous amount of strength this week. Our trading style works best in a strong trend and, if anything, the short/medium term trend at the moment is up.
Trading Idea: We will stand aside this Friday (better to miss out than miss your equity) and consider trading riskier than usual, but there are still plenty of couple decent trading ideas out there:
First off a short from 1.3400 WITH confirmation is a good possibility, depending on where you place your TP and SL, given then overbought charts. For this trade we'd really like to see an long extinction candle (shooting star, for example) with a nice long wick to confirm serious selling pressure before entering. It is best to wait for good confirmation here - bulls have shown considerable strength.
There is an aggressive breakout long trade on a sustained break above 1.3380 on the 1h charts (price is currently 1.3394 with 10 minutes until close). This breakout trade fits the recent bullish pattern of upward thrust, consolidation, upward thrust, consolidation, etc. The BIG threat to this trade though is that it is going to be difficult to continue a rally for too long given how overbought the charts are currently. Might be a good idea to use a tight first target or a trailing stop on this to lock in some profit early in case of a turn around in the pair.
Good luck if you decide to trade today. Otherwise have a great weekend.