Forex Technical Update July 20, 2010  AUD/USD Looking at a Near-term Decline, EW Count

  • 1H: Following up with an early post on AUD/USD, the rally causes some adjustments in the Elliott Wave count.
  • I mentioned before that for this to be a wave b, the rally should not have a third wave up above 0.8810. The market ran up to 0.8833 completing an impulse wave that started at the beginning of the week.
  • This makes me believe that first of all, we may have some further rally to test the previous top near 0.8880.
  • Thus the c wave may not be able to break below 0.8634 before the market continues the rally. This would complete the consolidation as a flat instead of a zig zag.
  • However if the market is supported above 0.87. we may already be in a wave 1 of the next bullish impulse wave.
  • Instead I suspect if this impulse wave is an indication of further rally, that there will be support as early as 0.8730 (50% retracement of the current rally).
  • There is a bearish divergence suggesting the timing is okay for a near-term correction of the latest upswing from 0.8634.

  Fan Yang Currency Analyst Commodity Trading Advisor

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