Forex Technical Update June 15, 2010  AUD/USD in Wave 4′?

  • Daily and 4H: In following the AUD/USD, we are still looking for a wave 4′ of wave (c). Wave 3′ has definitely been developed or is still developing, as the RSI in the 4H time-frame went above 60.
  • We may then, be in a wave 4′, which we may see in more detail in the 1H chart.

 

  • 1H: We see that in the rally, all the corrections have been very similar 1-wave corrections. Wave 4′ is thus expected to be different.
  • The chart above shows a scenario as the European session rally is stalled ahead of the US session open. The projection completes an AB=CD or Gartley correction.
  • Measured against the entire rally from 0.81, this would be 38.2% retracement. however, we see that there is support at 0.86. If this holds, we would be developing a descending triangle correction.
  • Then another rally, wave 5′ may finish wave (c) of wave 2. This means, after topping, we may have a sharp move.
  • Daily: There is a possibility that instead of wave (c), we are still in wave (a) after a truncated wave 5.

  Fan Yang Currency Analyst Commodity Trading Advisor

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