Forex Technical Update July 1, 2010  EUR/USD: Greenback Weakness Suggests More Consolidation  

  • Daily: The correction rally from 1.2150 was expected as mentioned in the Chartist Corner (I won't get the recording up until Friday unfortunately).
  • I was looking for topping action coming out of this rally. I mentioned after waiting for 2 swings. In this case, the second swing gave us the clue. It is stronger than what it should for an AB=CD pattern.
  • The RSI also broke above 60, with no negative reversal.
  • For now, I will have to shelf the previous bearish outlook towards 1.17. Even if it is still valid, the momentum shows timing is wrong, and the market may spend some more time in consolidation.
  • The USD is weak across the board to start the US session, so it is not so much as Euro regaining strength. If USD-weakness becomes a theme after tomorrow's Non-Farm Payroll, we can see the EUR/USD bottom off in the intermediate term.

  Fan Yang Currency Analyst Commodity Trading Advisor

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