EUR/USD May Continue Pressing Lower to 1.2130; Risk Assessment dtu_052510_eurusd

  • 15min: Yesterday's EUR/USD Falling Towards 1.2240 outlook was confirmed. The market actually continued lower to 1.2180 before finding support.
  • Now as we stalk the correction coming out of the 1.2180 support, we see a possible ab=cd retracement pattern completing near 1.2250.
  • The RSI is creating a negative reversal, and in a similar method of projection as yesterday's a swing targets 1.2130.
  • The RSI can confirm by 1.staying below 60, 2. breaking below its SMA5 3. Successfully testing the RSI as resistance.
  • The confirmation may not be as clean as anticipated. The most telling sign at the moment is the reversal candlestick combination that is developing.
  • The reward and risk ratio using 2 ATR from 1.2250 as protective stop (1.2192) and 1.2130 as target, assuming a theoretical entry at 1.2230 is: approximately 100:60 or 1.67:1.
  • It should be noted that the 1.2140 level is a 4-yr low, so be careful with this outlook. Monitor it very closely.

Fan Yang  Currency Analyst Commodity Trading Advisor