Forex Technical Update July 23, 2010  USD/JPY Pullback Rejected at 1.2950; Swing Eyes 1.27

  • 4H: The EUR/USD has established a top at 1.30 this week after breaking below the double top pattern. Thursday, we saw the EUR/USD surge but this was still a pullback. The targets established in an earlier update are still valid. We know the first near-term target is 1.27, and the market action has set up for a swing towards this level. You can see this projection on the chart above.
  • I forgot to put the 60 and 40 in the RSI, but you can see the RSI held below 60, a good sign for the bearish outlook.

  • Daily: The EUR/USD in the daily time-frame has finished 2 bullish swings, and was rejected that 1.30, 61.8% retracement level. I have mentioned the first target is at 1.25. If the market supports the pair here, we may have 5th wave swing towards and possibly above the 1.30 level. However, if 1.30 breaks, this count is invalid.
  • This is also 50% retracement and the 50-period moving average, so there should at least be temporary support. Then reaction after that should give us the clue to intermediate outlook. A break below looks at 1.2150 in the short-intermediate term.

  Fan Yang Currency Analyst Commodity Trading Advisor

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All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.