ftu_060810_gbpjpy

  • 4H and 15min: The projection I posted on the latest weekly update for GBP/JPY is 123. There are however some supports that need to be broken, and momentum to be had.
  • So far, the market is consolidating above 131.00 which is now becoming the neckline to a possible head and shoulder pattern. A break below 131 has very bearish implications. The RSI in the 4H time-frame broke below 40, but did not go into the oversold zone, suggesting the downswing is yet to come.
  • The 123 level is coincident with fibonacci levels of extended retracement. 125.70 is a pattern breakout projection. With the bias bearish in the long intermediate term, I am prone to suggest the higher likelyhood to reach 123. But I can't because getting to 123, means 100% that it will go through 125.70.
  • What I can say is that the 15-min chart is showing some start to this bearish momentum. The RSI went to 23 in the oversold zone and now is resolving this condition with a correction.
  • Look for topping near 132.70, where there is a confluence of 61.8% retracement and simple moving averages (50 and 200).

Fan Yang Currency Analyst Commodity Trading Advisor

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