Forex Technical Update July 19, 2010  

  • Daily and 1H: The GBP/USD pair has been declining since Friday after nearing the 1.55 level. This was an anticipated area of resistance, having a confluence of 200SMA in the daily, as well as 50% retracement and a previous powerline.
  • However, the mode of the pair is no longer bearish, and is probably ranging roughly between the 1.550 resistance and either the 1.48 or 1.4250 area.
  • In both scenario, a decline is anticipated.
  • The 1H chart shows the momentum bearish in the short-term, but this bearish momentum can be considered weak since it does not reach the oversold zone.
  • Therefore, it will be interesting to see how the market reacts if this decline fulfills 100% projection of the previous, bringing the price levl to 61.8% retracement, 1.1560.
  • If the market is to stay ranging, a rally from there should not break above the 50 SMA in the 1H chart. If it stays below the SMA 50 (in red), then the market is probably going to decline from this range resistance. A conservative target is 1.48, while an aggressive one is 1.4250.

  Fan Yang Currency Analyst Commodity Trading Advisor

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