dtu_052510_usdchf

  • Weeky: The USD/CHF has been on fire, surging 1000+ pips since April, without a week of pause. The most dynamic week appears to have passed 2 weeks ago, although the current week is still trading.
  • The 1.1760 area is the 78.6% retracement level, as well as an important powerline that extends back as support 2008 and 2009. Expect some correction from there. This correction will probably NOT be a simple like the one at the beginning of the year.
  • For example, I would put some weight in anticipating a zig zag.
  • In any case, if the market moves above 1.1760, it may be targeting the channel resistance of 1.2450. This are long-intermediate term target, and the 1.1760 should be the area of focus at the moment.

dtu_052510_usdchf1h

  • 1H: The 1H time-frame shows the pair rallying after last week's sideways action roughly between 1.1450 and 1.1550. A breakout and throwback occurred yesterday and the rallied until testing the 1.17 area.
  • A correction here also gives us a chance to confirm the rally towards 1.1760. The RSI appears to be declining faster than price action, which is a bullish sign, and may develop a positive revesral.
  • In anycase, watch for bottoming as the market nears 1.1600 area (38.2% retracement). I will come back to this if the scenario is confirmed becomes invalid.

Fan Yang  Currency Analyst Commodity Trading Advisor