Forex Technical Update June 17, 2010  USD/CHF In a Speedy Correction

  • Daily: As anticipated in my previous posts, the USD/CHF has topped off and is in a significant correction. I did not anticipate such a sharp reversal. The plan is still to look for bottoming action. If this is a wave 4, it should not go below 1.0930. There is support at 1.11 and the market is at 1.1130 at the moment.
  • The thing that concerns me is that this momentum is very strong and the RSI in the daily has dropped below 40, first time since Dec, 2009, before it started to rally.
  • But, today's candle has not closed. It is testing the 50-period simple moving average, and soon the 78.6% and 50% retracement levels. This is also a consolidation zone in May, though it was brief.
  • It is hard to maintain a bullish outlook, if the price action is so bearish. A few more day's price action is needed to assess whether the market might continue a wave v rally.

  Fan Yang Currency Analyst Commodity Trading Advisor

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