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Fifty pips, and under 20 if swissy is taken out, is all that the six major pairs have managed to move on the dollar in overnight trade, albeit that a big economic calendar week gets underway on Tuesday.
We are now waiting to see if the Chicago reversal, in reaction to London oil, gold, and LIBOR rates getting fixed, can move the pairs anywhere, TheLFB Trade Team said. The short side of the major pairs failed to follow through, maybe it will be time to see how well the dollar bulls fare in the face of some selling action ahead of Wall Street.
The markets are still range-bound, with very light volume. Starting a new Quarter of trade on Wednesday, and with such a heavy calendar, we may see a break of that pattern. The next move is likely to be huge; there is a lot of cause and effect being built in these sideways channels, and however frustrating they are to sit and watch, they build energy to sustain the eventual break.
Take care with expecting big breaks on the majors, until we get a move backed by global market volume. Right now there is a concern that the intra-day volatility has become a little extreme.
We would ideally like to see some stability come into the break-outs, but accept that until the 4 hour channel price points, as revealed on the Trade Plans, break hard we are likely to see two, three, or four re-tests of the same price points, the Trade Team added.
It is a time of year that 20:00 EDT (Hong Kong and Japan), 02:00 EDT (German Dax futures moves), and 07:00 EDT (Chicago reaction to London Fixings on oil, gold and Libor rates) become critical to catch the momentum of.
Outside of the above times, a lack of volume tends to show itself in the form of failed breaks.