Weakness Stays with Greenback; Yen Might Start Sliding as Well
This week, The US dollar continued to lose ground to the euro, and pound, as well as to the JPY, which competes with the USD for risk-aversion-based flow. The commodity currencies such as AUD and CAD also gained on the greenback. Even gold, which has been declining is gaining again. It appears the dollar has slid across the board. The Japanese yen may also start getting pressured, but only early signals are given to this outlook. Let's review the technical developments for this week.
USD/JPY Remains Bearish with Negative Reversal Signal
- Daily: The USD/JPY fell below its previous support near 86.40, and tested the 86.00 level.
- This came after a rally materializing after a bullish divergence. Because the rally did not reach the previous high near 89.00, the market is showing us a negative reversal. This is a signal when the price high is lower, but the RSI high is higher.
- The projection for this is shown in the chart to about 85.20.
- This is the support zone for the USD/JPY going back to Dec 2009. The timing of the USD/JPY hitting this support, and the EUR/USD hitting an important resistance zone, might give the USD some strength in the next couple of weeks.
GBP/USD Testing Important Resistance Zone
- Daily: The GBP/USD continues to be strong this week. There was a positive reversal spotted last week, and the market continues higher after reaching the projection.
- The RSI did not develope a bearish divergence, a sign of continuing strength.
- I did mention earlier this week that the market should be nearing resistance. The 200-period moving average (in gray), is being tested, and the market continues. It is not testing an important powerline/zone that starts at about 1.57 to 1.5870(61.8% retracement).
- My take is that the market is now ranging, but is overextended to the upside. However, if the market accelerates next week, and the RSI shoots into the overbought zone. I would reconsider.
- If the market finds topping action next week, I will become more confident of this scenario.
- Next couple of weeks appear to be very crucial as the market spends time considering direction from significant powerlines, pivots, resistance, support, whatever technicians call them.
USD/CAD Breaks Below Congestion Pattern
- Daily and 1H: There isn't much to update on the USD/CAD, except that it indeed broke below the congestion pattern. The target remains the 1.02/1.0180 area, and possibly retest of the parity level.
- The RSI shows ranging momentum, so I would start looking for bottom action soon. The weakness in the USD appears to be bringing it to major supports across the board. Will this help the greenback bounce back?
- If so, I would anticipate sharp reversals, such as a strong rally for USD/CAD from 1.018 next week, back towards 1.04, where the moving averages reside.
EUR/GBP Euro Showing Weakness
- Daily and 4H: The EUR/GBP was seen last week to decline and be supported at 0.8250. This week, the market did indeed continue the decline, but is only showing more confirmation for this outlook today.
- Looking the 4H chart, we see that the latest candle is threatening to break below the 0.8320 area. It broke it, but has not confirmed yet, and the break has not been convincing.
- This does also breaks the SMA 200 in the 4H chart.
- I am interested in seeing the reaction near 0.8250, the 61.8% retracement level. If there is a rally that breaks above the 0.84 area, I am convinced of a continuation rally.
- However, I will be looking for topping action as early as 0.8320.
- Then, the next target for decline is the previous low near 0.81/0.8060.
AUD/USD Struggling to Reach 0.91
- Daily: Last week, I anticipated further rally in the AUD/USD towards the resistance zone around the 78.6% retracement area.
- This week, the market gave us a strong bearish signal, but has not followed through. Instead, the week ended rallying, and testing this week's high just below 0.91.
- This may complete a 2-swing correction suggesting a bearish attempt following the completion.
- There is possibility of topping action, and a decline towards 0.8550 in the short-intermediate term.
GBP/JPY Breaking Above Congestion Pattern
- Daily: The GBP/JPY did finally break above the congestion pattern we have been stalking the past several weeks now. The break is strong and has impulse type internals. The last few days saw the GBP/JPY slide but this offers a throwback.
- If the market can rally to start next week, it can go towards 140.00, with 138.65 as first resistance.
- The RSI did break above 60 temporarily, but the momentum is not convincing of a bullish rally.
- There is only a slight bias to the upside due to the strength of the rally and the weakness of the subsequent decline. Also, Elliott Wave Principles suggest internals point to bullish scenarios as well in the short-term.
- Perhaps, the Japanese yen will also take a hit. The rally in EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY is more probable if the USD/JPY can find a bottom and rally.
Fan Yang Currency Analyst Commodity Trading Advisor firstname.lastname@example.org
Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.