Forexperts Archives

Stronger Than Expected Retail Sales Helps Support U.S. Dollar

The USD gained against most major currencies on Tuesday based on the stronger than expected retail sales report and inflationary talk. The surprise strength in the retail report forced financial market traders to increase their bets that the Fed is likely to leave rates unchanged at their next meeti... (May 13, 2008 6:36PM)

Euro Top May Have Been Set in Motion Weeks Ago

The Wall Street Journal in its weekend edition speculated that the Bush administration was waging a battle for international support to put a floor under the U.S. Dollar. (May 12, 2008 6:36PM)

Technical Weakness in the USDJPY Sets Up a Further Decline to 100.72

The Japanese Yen benefited from a poor performance in the U.S. stock market this week. Traders sold off high yielding assets in favor of the Yen as their need for risk abated. (May 09, 2008 9:40PM)

Trichet Maintains Hawkish Tone; EURUSD Likely to Become Range Bound

Apparently ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet was not swayed by Wednesday's reports indicating a slowdown in Euro Zone economic activity, instead choosing to remain hawkish by making comments that indicate that the ECB is not likely to lower interest rates soon. (May 08, 2008 6:23PM)

ECB Likely to Lighten Up Its Hawkish Tone as Reports Signal Euro Zone Weakness

The Euro was slammed by news that U.S. productivity increased while Euro Zone economic activity slowed. This double-whammy of economic news now has traders thinking the ECB will adopt a less hawkish tone in its next statement on May 8. (May 07, 2008 5:29PM)

Bad U.S. Economic Data Helps Trigger Euro Rally

The Euro remains firm against the Dollar on yesterday's hawkish comments from the ECB regarding interest rates and fresh news that the financial crisis in the U.S. is far from over. (May 06, 2008 5:50PM)

Euro Likely to Retest 1.5690 in Technically Driven Rally

Calling the risk of inflation "significant" ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet's hawkish comments helped rally the EURUSD on Monday. Inflation in the Euro Zone has increased recently due to higher energy and food prices. (May 05, 2008 6:47PM)

Fed Still Needs to Stimulate the Economy Without Fueling Inflation

If there was any doubt that the Fed was finished cutting interest rates at its upcoming meetings it was squelched on Friday as a better than expected jobs report sent signals through the Forex markets that the U.S. economic slowdown may not be as bad after all. (May 02, 2008 6:09PM)

Traders Decide Fed is Done with the Rate Cuts

Traders bought Dollars in a big way on Thursday, as the consensus is that the Fed is done reducing rates. On Wednesday, traders were tentative to put on aggressive positions, as the Fed language following its latest interest rate cut was unclear as to what its intentions were going to be the rest o... (May 01, 2008 5:35PM)

Fed Signal Unclear; Euro Still the Stronger of the Two Currencies

As expected, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates another 25 bp to 2%. This put the Fed funds rate at its lowest level in almost four years. The language released after the interest rate cut, however, was not exactly what the Dollar bulls wanted to hear. (Apr 30, 2008 4:36PM)

ECB Needs to Address the Drop in European Retail Sales

Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that European retail sales dropped the most in four years in April. This key report drew no immediate comment from the ECB but will definitely have to be a concern. Like other central banks, the ECB may soon be facing the issue of battling inflation along with providi... (Apr 29, 2008 4:44PM)

Weekly Reversal Top in Euro Still Needs to Be Confirmed with Follow Through Selling

The EURUSD moved in a tight and narrow range as traders continued to make position adjustments ahead of the April 30 Fed meeting. While the market is trading for a 25 bp reduction, the focus, however, will be on the Fed's language. Expectations are for the Fed to announce that it is close to e... (Apr 28, 2008 7:50PM)

Hans S. Nilsson

Jay Norris

Lena Manousarides

Brian Dolan

• Michael Woolfolk, economist at Bank of New York
• Thomson Financial News - "The dollar appears set for a period of renewed stability in 2008 as long as interest rate differentials and the US credit crisis do not deteriorate any further." Michael Woolfolk

• Katarzyna Zajdel-Kurowska, polish deputy finance minister
• Thomson Financial News - "The biggest threat for inflation next year remains fuel prices and rising global demand for agricultural produce. We can, however, assume that together with a likely fall in food prices in the second half of next year inflation will start to fall. It is clear that the recent rise in inflation is due chiefly to ri... Katarzyna Zajdel-Kurowska

• Robert Brusca, economist at FAO Economics
• Reuters - "This is still a big deficit even though we had some modest reduction. Some of that progress is due to the fact that imports have been restrained and the economy is weakening." Robert Brusca